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Völsungur vs Vestri Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 19 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 18:00

Völsungur

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vestri

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.7%0-23.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.3%1-19.3%1-26.9%1-33.4%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.2%2-19.1%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.0%3-16.0%3-24.4%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.6%4+-23.4%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 30.3% 3.30 +61.0%

Draw 22.4% 26.0% 3.85 -8.3%

Away win 28.8% 54.1% 1.85 -28.0%

Over 2.5 64.7% 72.5% 1.38 -10.7%

Over 3.5 42.9% 51.8% 1.93 -17.2%

BTTS 63.3% 75.2% 1.33 -15.8%

Home O1.5 54.6% 50.0% 2.00 +9.2%

Away O1.5 44.9% 66.7% 1.50 -32.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.3%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Völsungur2.0

Vestri1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VÖLSUNGUR · PPG 1.22

VESTRI · PPG 0.89

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Völsungur (H) 48.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +61.0%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -8.3%

Vestri (A) 28.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -28.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Völsungur face Vestri in Iceland - 1. Deild on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Völsungur a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Vestri 29%, so Völsungur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Völsungur and 1.5 for Vestri (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Völsungur are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.89 for Vestri. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +51.9%.

Völsungur vs Vestri Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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