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IR Reykjavik vs Leiknir R. Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

IR Reykjavik

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

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UPCOMING

Leiknir R.

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

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// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.6%0-23.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.8%1-110.5%1-26.2%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.7%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.1%3-16.0%3-23.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.3%4+-22.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.2% 61.7% 1.62 -21.9%

Draw 23.2% 25.0% 4.00 -4.3%

Away win 28.6% 25.0% 4.00 +8.6%

Over 2.5 61.4% 69.4% 1.44 -11.6%

Over 3.5 40.0% 50.0% 2.00 -20.0%

BTTS 61.5% 69.4% 1.44 -11.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 69.4% 1.44 -19.7%

Away O1.5 34.6% 38.2% 2.62 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 48% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–2 6.2%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IR Reykjavik1.9

Leiknir R.1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

IR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.80

LEIKNIR R. · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

IR Reykjavik (H) 48.2%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -21.9%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -4.3%

Leiknir R. (A) 28.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

IR Reykjavik face Leiknir R. in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IR Reykjavik a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Leiknir R. 29%, so IR Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for IR Reykjavik and 1.2 for Leiknir R. (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IR Reykjavik are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.80 for Leiknir R.. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +14.3%.

IR Reykjavik vs Leiknir R. Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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