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Fylkir vs Grotta Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 19:15

Fylkir

PPG 2.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Grotta

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.6%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.6%1-16.8%1-24.2%1-31.7%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.4%2-19.0%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.4%3-17.9%3-24.8%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-19.7%4+-25.9%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.2% 73.5% 1.36 -16.8%

Draw 18.5% 20.8% 4.80 -6.7%

Away win 20.3% 16.7% 6.00 +13.1%

Over 2.5 68.2% 75.2% 1.33 -9.3%

Over 3.5 48.1% 54.1% 1.85 -11.0%

BTTS 63.1% 67.6% 1.48 -6.6%

Home O1.5 65.8% 78.1% 1.28 -15.8%

Away O1.5 36.6% 35.7% 2.80 +2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.1%

H 61% / xG 2.6-1.2 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1 6.8%

#3 3–1✓ 7.9%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 3–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fylkir2.6

Grotta1.2

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FYLKIR · PPG 2.20

GROTTA · PPG 1.70

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.41 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fylkir (H) 61.2%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -16.8%

Draw 18.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -6.7%

Grotta (A) 20.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fylkir face Grotta in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fylkir a 61% chance, the draw 19% and Grotta 20%, so Fylkir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Fylkir and 1.2 for Grotta (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fylkir are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.70 for Grotta. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +15.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Fylkir vs Grotta Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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