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Vestri vs Throttur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Vestri

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

UPCOMING

Throttur Reykjavik

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-16.7%0-25.8%0-33.3%0-4+2.1%1 1-05.9%1-110.2%1-28.8%1-35.1%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.5%2-17.8%2-26.7%2-33.8%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.3%3-13.9%3-23.4%3-31.9%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 38.5% 2.60 -10.8%

Draw 22.7% 28.6% 3.50 -12.3%

Away win 42.9% 44.4% 2.25 -3.5%

Over 2.5 63.7% 69.4% 1.44 -8.3%

Over 3.5 40.5% 47.6% 2.10 -14.9%

BTTS 63.0% 71.4% 1.40 -11.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 52.4% 1.91 -23.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 55.6% 1.80 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.0%

A 43% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 0–2 5.8%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vestri1.5

Throttur Reykjavik1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VESTRI · PPG 1.90

THROTTUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vestri (H) 34.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -10.8%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.3%

Throttur Reykjavik (A) 42.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vestri face Throttur Reykjavik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vestri a 34% chance, the draw 23% and Throttur Reykjavik 43%, so Throttur Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Vestri and 1.7 for Throttur Reykjavik (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vestri are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.40 for Throttur Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +13.0%.

Vestri vs Throttur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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