Today / Iceland - 1. Deild / Vestri vs Leiknir R.

Vestri vs Leiknir R. Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Vestri

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Leiknir R.

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.1%0-24.4%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.3%1-110.5%1-27.6%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-19.0%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.6%3-15.2%3-23.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.3%4+-22.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.0% 47.6% 2.10 -13.9%

Draw 22.7% 27.0% 3.70 -9.6%

Away win 36.4% 35.7% 2.80 +1.9%

Over 2.5 62.6% 69.0% 1.45 -9.2%

Over 3.5 39.4% 46.5% 2.15 -15.3%

BTTS 61.3% 71.4% 1.40 -14.2%

Home O1.5 48.8% 58.8% 1.70 -17.0%

Away O1.5 41.2% 50.0% 2.00 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 41% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 7.6%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 2–0✓ 6.2%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vestri1.7

Leiknir R.1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VESTRI · PPG 1.78

LEIKNIR R. · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vestri (H) 41.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -13.9%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.6%

Leiknir R. (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vestri face Leiknir R. in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vestri a 41% chance, the draw 23% and Leiknir R. 36%, so Vestri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Vestri and 1.4 for Leiknir R. (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vestri are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.89 for Leiknir R.. This match finished 2-0.

Vestri vs Leiknir R. Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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