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HK Kopavogur vs Throttur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

HK Kopavogur

PPG 2.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Throttur Reykjavik

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.0%0-23.4%0-31.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-04.9%1-18.2%1-26.9%1-33.9%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.0%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-34.0%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.5%3-15.8%3-24.9%3-32.7%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.8%4+-24.0%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 35.7% 2.80 +26.3%

Draw 21.5% 26.3% 3.80 -11.0%

Away win 33.4% 47.6% 2.10 -29.9%

Over 2.5 67.3% 73.5% 1.36 -8.5%

Over 3.5 43.5% 51.8% 1.93 -16.0%

BTTS 63.2% 75.2% 1.33 -15.9%

Home O1.5 59.1% 54.6% 1.83 +8.2%

Away O1.5 48.5% 62.5% 1.60 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.2%

H 45% / xG 2.1-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HK Kopavogur2.1

Throttur Reykjavik1.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HK KOPAVOGUR · PPG 2.78

THROTTUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.56

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

HK Kopavogur (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +26.3%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.0%

Throttur Reykjavik (A) 33.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -29.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

HK Kopavogur face Throttur Reykjavik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HK Kopavogur a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Throttur Reykjavik 33%, so HK Kopavogur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for HK Kopavogur and 1.7 for Throttur Reykjavik (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HK Kopavogur are averaging 2.78 points per game versus 1.56 for Throttur Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +24.6%. This match finished 3-0.

HK Kopavogur vs Throttur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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