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Ægir vs Afturelding Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 20 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Ægir

PPG 0.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 7

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Afturelding

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-13.4%0-25.1%0-35.2%0-4+8.5%1 1-01.6%1-14.9%1-27.5%1-37.6%1-4+12.3%2 2-01.2%2-13.6%2-25.4%2-35.5%2-4+9.0%3 3-00.6%3-11.7%3-22.6%3-32.7%3-4+4.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.9%4+-21.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.3% 16.7% 6.00 -4.9%

Draw 16.1% 20.8% 4.80 -13.6%

Away win 68.6% 73.5% 1.36 -6.7%

Over 2.5 73.3% 78.1% 1.28 -6.2%

Over 3.5 54.2% 58.8% 1.70 -7.9%

BTTS 63.5% 72.5% 1.38 -12.4%

Home O1.5 40.0% 39.2% 2.55 +2.0%

Away O1.5 70.0% 80.0% 1.25 -12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-7

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob63.5%

A 69% / xG 1.5-3.0 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.6%

#2 1–2 7.5%

#3 1–4 5.8%

#4 2–3 5.5%

#5 1–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ægir1.5

Afturelding3.0

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.3% · O3.5 PROB 54.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ÆGIR · PPG 0.33

AFTURELDING · PPG 1.78

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.59 for Away, form 0.33 vs 1.78

Win probability 1X2

Ægir (H) 15.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -4.9%

Draw 16.1%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -13.6%

Afturelding (A) 68.6%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ægir face Afturelding in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ægir a 15% chance, the draw 16% and Afturelding 69%, so Afturelding are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ægir and 3.0 for Afturelding (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ægir are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.78 for Afturelding. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.2%. This match finished 0-7.

Ægir vs Afturelding Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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