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Afturelding vs Vestri Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Afturelding

PPG 2.30 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Vestri

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-10.7%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.5%1-12.7%1-21.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.2%2 2-05.0%2-15.4%2-22.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.6%3-17.2%3-23.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-019.0%4+-120.7%4+-211.3%4+-34.1%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.2% 80.0% 1.25 -4.8%

Draw 15.6% 17.2% 5.80 -5.7%

Away win 8.2% 12.5% 8.00 -20.6%

Over 2.5 74.7% 78.1% 1.28 -4.4%

Over 3.5 56.2% 59.9% 1.67 -6.2%

BTTS 60.8% 66.7% 1.50 -8.8%

Home O1.5 78.3% 82.0% 1.22 -4.5%

Away O1.5 32.9% 30.8% 3.25 +6.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 82%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)4.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.8%

H 76% / xG 4.0-1.1 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.2%

#2 4–1 7.2%

#3 3–0 6.6%

#4 4–0 6.6%

#5 1–1 2.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Afturelding4.0

Vestri1.1

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.7% · O3.5 PROB 56.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AFTURELDING · PPG 2.30

VESTRI · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.90 for Home, form 2.30 vs 0.80 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Afturelding (H) 76.2%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -4.8%

Draw 15.6%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -5.7%

Vestri (A) 8.2%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Afturelding face Vestri in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Afturelding a 76% chance, the draw 16% and Vestri 8%, so Afturelding are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.0 for Afturelding and 1.1 for Vestri (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Afturelding are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 0.80 for Vestri. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +6.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Afturelding vs Vestri Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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