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Throttur Reykjavik vs Ægir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 19:15

Throttur Reykjavik

PPG 2.30 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLW

7 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Ægir

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 90.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-10.7%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.1%1-12.8%1-21.0%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-07.9%2-15.4%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.2%3-17.0%3-22.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-027.0%4+-118.6%4+-26.4%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.4% 90.1% 1.11 -15.2%

Draw 15.6% 12.8% 7.80 +13.0%

Away win 8.1% 7.1% 14.00 +8.0%

Over 2.5 72.0% 85.5% 1.17 -15.8%

Over 3.5 52.0% 70.4% 1.42 -26.2%

BTTS 52.7% 62.5% 1.60 -15.7%

Home O1.5 78.3% 90.9% 1.10 -13.9%

Away O1.5 18.2% 26.7% 3.75 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-2

xG (home)3.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.7%

H 76% / xG 3.9-0.7 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.2%

#2 4–0 9.8%

#3 1–1 2.8%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 5–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Throttur Reykjavik3.9

Ægir0.7

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

THROTTUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.30

ÆGIR · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.17 for Home, form 2.30 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Throttur Reykjavik (H) 76.4%

ODDS 1.11 · IMPLIED 90.1% EV -15.2%

Draw 15.6%

ODDS 7.80 · IMPLIED 12.8% EV +13.0%

Ægir (A) 8.1%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Throttur Reykjavik face Ægir in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Throttur Reykjavik a 76% chance, the draw 16% and Ægir 8%, so Throttur Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for Throttur Reykjavik and 0.7 for Ægir (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Throttur Reykjavik are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 0.50 for Ægir. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.4%. This match finished 7-2.

Throttur Reykjavik vs Ægir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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