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Njardvik vs Völsungur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:00

Njardvik

PPG 2.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Völsungur

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-12.8%0-21.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.4%1-17.3%1-23.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.4%2-19.3%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-08.1%3-18.0%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-09.6%4+-19.4%4+-24.6%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.2% 73.5% 1.36 -20.8%

Draw 20.0% 20.8% 4.80 -2.4%

Away win 21.8% 16.7% 6.00 +18.5%

Over 2.5 65.4% 73.5% 1.36 -11.1%

Over 3.5 43.5% 51.8% 1.93 -16.0%

BTTS 61.1% 66.7% 1.50 -8.3%

Home O1.5 65.1% 76.9% 1.30 -15.4%

Away O1.5 29.0% 33.9% 2.95 -8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.1%

H 58% / xG 2.6-1.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 2–0 9.4%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 1–2 3.6%

#5 3–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Njardvik2.6

Völsungur1.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NJARDVIK · PPG 2.44

VÖLSUNGUR · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.58 for Home, form 2.44 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Njardvik (H) 58.2%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -20.8%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -2.4%

Völsungur (A) 21.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Njardvik face Völsungur in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Njardvik a 58% chance, the draw 20% and Völsungur 22%, so Njardvik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Njardvik and 1.0 for Völsungur (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Njardvik are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 0.67 for Völsungur. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 4-0.

Njardvik vs Völsungur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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