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Grindavik vs HK Kopavogur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Grindavik

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLW

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

HK Kopavogur

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-18.2%0-25.4%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.1%1-112.0%1-27.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-18.7%2-25.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.2%3-14.2%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 37.0% 2.70 +3.7%

Draw 24.4% 27.8% 3.60 -7.3%

Away win 37.2% 46.5% 2.15 -20.0%

Over 2.5 55.3% 73.5% 1.36 -24.8%

Over 3.5 35.4% 54.6% 1.83 -35.2%

BTTS 55.1% 74.1% 1.35 -25.6%

Home O1.5 40.1% 54.6% 1.83 -26.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 61.7% 1.62 -33.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.1%

H 38% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 7.9%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 0–1 8.2%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grindavik1.5

HK Kopavogur1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GRINDAVIK · PPG 1.40

HK KOPAVOGUR · PPG 0.70

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Grindavik (H) 38.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +3.7%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.3%

HK Kopavogur (A) 37.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grindavik face HK Kopavogur in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grindavik a 38% chance, the draw 24% and HK Kopavogur 37%, so Grindavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Grindavik and 1.3 for HK Kopavogur (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grindavik are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.70 for HK Kopavogur. This match finished 4-3.

Grindavik vs HK Kopavogur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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