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Afturelding vs Grotta Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 15 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 19:15

Afturelding

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Grotta

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 83.1% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.6%0-20.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-01.4%1-12.3%1-21.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-02.8%2-14.6%2-23.8%2-32.0%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.8%3-16.2%3-25.0%3-32.7%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-011.2%4+-118.3%4+-214.9%4+-38.1%4+-4+4.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.9% 76.9% 1.30 -10.4%

Draw 15.4% 18.5% 5.40 -10.1%

Away win 15.7% 14.8% 6.75 +3.6%

Over 2.5 83.1% 82.0% 1.22 +1.4%

Over 3.5 66.9% 61.7% 1.62 +8.4%

BTTS 69.3% 71.4% 1.40 -3.0%

Home O1.5 78.3% 84.7% 1.18 -7.6%

Away O1.5 47.9% 38.5% 2.60 +24.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)4.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob69.3%

H 69% / xG 4.0-1.6 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 6.2%

#2 3–1 6.2%

#3 2–2 3.8%

#4 4–2 5.1%

#5 3–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Afturelding4.0

Grotta1.6

COMBINED 5.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.1% · O3.5 PROB 66.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AFTURELDING · PPG 2.22

GROTTA · PPG 1.89

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.40 for Home, form 2.22 vs 1.89 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Afturelding (H) 68.9%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -10.4%

Draw 15.4%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -10.1%

Grotta (A) 15.7%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Afturelding face Grotta in Iceland - 1. Deild on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Afturelding a 69% chance, the draw 15% and Grotta 16%, so Afturelding are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.0 for Afturelding and 1.6 for Grotta (5.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Afturelding are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.89 for Grotta. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +24.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Afturelding vs Grotta Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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