Today / Iceland - 1. Deild / Grindavik vs Grotta

Grindavik vs Grotta Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 19 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 18:00

Grindavik

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Grotta

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-19.5%0-25.7%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.7%1-112.7%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.1%2-18.5%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.2%3-13.8%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% 47.6% 2.10 -17.1%

Draw 27.0% 25.0% 4.00 +4.8%

Away win 33.5% 37.0% 2.70 -9.6%

Over 2.5 49.9% 76.9% 1.30 -35.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 55.6% 1.80 -29.0%

BTTS 53.1% 78.1% 1.28 -32.0%

Home O1.5 37.9% 65.4% 1.53 -42.0%

Away O1.5 35.5% 57.8% 1.73 -38.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.1%

H 40% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grindavik1.3

Grotta1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GRINDAVIK · PPG 1.44

GROTTA · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Grindavik (H) 39.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -17.1%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +4.8%

Grotta (A) 33.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grindavik face Grotta in Iceland - 1. Deild on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grindavik a 40% chance, the draw 27% and Grotta 34%, so Grindavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Grindavik and 1.2 for Grotta (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grindavik are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 2.00 for Grotta.

Grindavik vs Grotta Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - 1. Deild Predictions