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Leiknir R. vs Njardvik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Leiknir R.

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Njardvik

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.1%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.1%1-111.6%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.5%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.6%3-15.2%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 30.8% 3.25 +50.8%

Draw 24.3% 26.3% 3.80 -4.6%

Away win 29.3% 54.1% 1.85 -27.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 45.5% 2.20 -19.3%

BTTS 59.9% 69.4% 1.44 -13.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 40.0% 2.50 +22.3%

Away O1.5 33.0% 63.7% 1.57 -48.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.9%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.1%

#4 2–0✓ 8.3%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leiknir R.1.6

Njardvik1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEIKNIR R. · PPG 1.70

NJARDVIK · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leiknir R. (H) 46.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +50.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.6%

Njardvik (A) 29.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -27.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leiknir R. face Njardvik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leiknir R. a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Njardvik 29%, so Leiknir R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Leiknir R. and 1.1 for Njardvik (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leiknir R. are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.00 for Njardvik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +34.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Leiknir R. vs Njardvik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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