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Fylkir vs Grindavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Fylkir

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWW

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Grindavik

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-14.0%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.5%1-18.9%1-24.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.8%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.7%3-17.2%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-16.7%4+-23.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.1% 71.4% 1.40 -22.9%

Draw 21.9% 21.1% 4.75 +2.4%

Away win 23.0% 17.9% 5.60 +17.3%

Over 2.5 62.6% 70.4% 1.42 -11.1%

Over 3.5 39.4% 47.6% 2.10 -17.3%

BTTS 54.7% 64.5% 1.55 -15.2%

Home O1.5 65.1% 74.1% 1.35 -12.1%

Away O1.5 25.7% 33.3% 3.00 -13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 55% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–2 4.2%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fylkir2.2

Grindavik0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FYLKIR · PPG 2.11

GRINDAVIK · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fylkir (H) 55.1%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -22.9%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +2.4%

Grindavik (A) 23.0%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fylkir face Grindavik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fylkir a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Grindavik 23%, so Fylkir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Fylkir and 0.9 for Grindavik (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fylkir are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.78 for Grindavik. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +1.7%. This match finished 6-1.

Fylkir vs Grindavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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