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Njardvik vs Afturelding Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Njardvik

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

UPCOMING

Afturelding

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.5%0-23.7%0-32.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.5%1-18.9%1-27.2%1-33.9%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.5%3-15.7%3-24.6%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-14.3%4+-23.5%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 34.5% 2.90 +23.3%

Draw 20.9% 26.3% 3.80 -12.3%

Away win 36.5% 51.3% 1.95 -28.8%

Over 2.5 66.9% 71.4% 1.40 -6.3%

Over 3.5 45.0% 50.0% 2.00 -10.0%

BTTS 63.5% 71.4% 1.40 -11.1%

Home O1.5 55.8% 47.6% 2.10 +17.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 61.7% 1.62 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 42% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2 7.2%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Njardvik2.0

Afturelding1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NJARDVIK · PPG 2.50

AFTURELDING · PPG 1.90

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Njardvik (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +23.3%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.3%

Afturelding (A) 36.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -28.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Njardvik face Afturelding in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Njardvik a 43% chance, the draw 21% and Afturelding 37%, so Njardvik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Njardvik and 1.6 for Afturelding (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Njardvik are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.90 for Afturelding. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +35.1%.

Njardvik vs Afturelding Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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