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Ægir vs Grindavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Ægir

PPG 0.30 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

UPCOMING

Grindavik

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.7%0-25.5%0-33.0%0-4+1.8%1 1-06.3%1-110.4%1-28.6%1-34.7%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.9%2-18.1%2-26.7%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.6%3-14.2%3-23.5%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.8% 16.7% 6.00 +108.8%

Draw 21.6% 18.2% 5.50 +11.3%

Away win 43.6% 76.9% 1.30 -43.3%

Over 2.5 65.0% 80.0% 1.25 -18.8%

Over 3.5 44.9% 61.7% 1.62 -27.3%

BTTS 63.5% 71.4% 1.40 -11.1%

Home O1.5 45.9% 44.4% 2.25 +3.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 80.0% 1.25 -40.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

A 44% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–2 5.5%

#5 0–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ægir1.6

Grindavik1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ÆGIR · PPG 0.30

GRINDAVIK · PPG 0.70

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ægir (H) 34.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +108.8%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +11.3%

Grindavik (A) 43.6%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -43.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ægir face Grindavik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ægir a 35% chance, the draw 22% and Grindavik 44%, so Grindavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ægir and 1.6 for Grindavik (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ægir are averaging 0.30 points per game versus 0.70 for Grindavik. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +113.7%.

Ægir vs Grindavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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