Today / Saudi-Arabia - Pro League / Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC

Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 5 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 18:00

Al Diriyah

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDW ·

UPCOMING

Al-Qadisiyah FC

PPG 2.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-110.1%0-27.9%0-34.1%0-4+2.2%1 1-07.7%1-111.9%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.5%2-17.0%2-25.4%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.8%3-12.8%3-22.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% 19.0% 5.25 +63.8%

Draw 25.4% 23.8% 4.20 +4.0%

Away win 43.4% 69.0% 1.45 -37.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 67.6% 1.48 -20.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 45.5% 2.20 -30.5%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 32.8% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -30.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.6%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 10.1%

#4 2–1 7.0%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Diriyah1.2

Al-Qadisiyah FC1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AL DIRIYAH · PPG 1.21

AL-QADISIYAH FC · PPG 2.27

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Diriyah (H) 31.2%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +63.8%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +4.0%

Al-Qadisiyah FC (A) 43.4%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -37.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Diriyah face Al-Qadisiyah FC in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Diriyah a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Al-Qadisiyah FC 43%, so Al-Qadisiyah FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al Diriyah and 1.6 for Al-Qadisiyah FC (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Diriyah are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 2.27 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +46.9%.

Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Saudi-Arabia - Pro League Predictions