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Abha vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:00

Abha

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDL ·

UPCOMING

Al-Ettifaq

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.8%0-25.3%0-32.7%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.8%1-110.7%1-28.3%1-34.3%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.4%2-26.6%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.8%3-14.4%3-23.5%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.5%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 34.5% 2.90 +12.8%

Draw 24.1% 28.2% 3.55 -8.7%

Away win 37.0% 44.4% 2.25 -16.8%

Over 2.5 61.6% 57.8% 1.73 +6.6%

Over 3.5 40.2% 35.7% 2.80 +12.6%

BTTS 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Home O1.5 47.1% 42.0% 2.38 +12.1%

Away O1.5 47.9% 50.0% 2.00 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -30.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.5%

H 39% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Abha1.6

Al-Ettifaq1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ABHA · PPG 1.21

AL-ETTIFAQ · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Abha (H) 38.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +12.8%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.7%

Al-Ettifaq (A) 37.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Abha face Al-Ettifaq in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Abha a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Al-Ettifaq 37%, so Abha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Abha and 1.6 for Al-Ettifaq (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Abha are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.67 for Al-Ettifaq. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +15.7%.

Abha vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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