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Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 16:10

Al Taawon

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDL ·

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Al-Fayha

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDW ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 48.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-16.0%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.2%1-110.9%1-25.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.1%3-15.9%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.0%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 55.6% 1.80 -5.0%

Draw 24.3% 27.4% 3.65 -6.8%

Away win 22.9% 24.4% 4.10 -3.7%

Over 2.5 53.4% 54.1% 1.85 -1.2%

Over 3.5 31.5% 32.3% 3.10 -2.4%

BTTS 52.7% 57.8% 1.73 -8.8%

Home O1.5 48.9% 54.1% 1.85 -9.5%

Away O1.5 27.0% 31.3% 3.20 -8.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -30.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 0–0✓ 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Taawon1.8

Al-Fayha1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL TAAWON · PPG 1.43

AL-FAYHA · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Taawon (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -5.0%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.8%

Al-Fayha (A) 22.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Taawon face Al-Fayha in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Taawon a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Al-Fayha 23%, so Al Taawon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Al Taawon and 1.0 for Al-Fayha (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Taawon are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.88 for Al-Fayha. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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