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NEOM vs Al Khaleej Saihat Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 5 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 16:30

NEOM

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLL ·

UPCOMING

Al Khaleej Saihat

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-18.7%0-24.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.0%1-112.5%1-27.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-18.9%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.8%3-14.3%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 52.6% 1.90 -15.1%

Draw 26.2% 27.8% 3.60 -3.4%

Away win 29.1% 26.3% 3.80 +6.3%

Over 2.5 50.6% 55.6% 1.80 -8.9%

Over 3.5 29.8% 33.3% 3.00 -6.4%

BTTS 52.9% 59.9% 1.67 -11.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 54.1% 1.85 -26.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 34.5% 2.90 -3.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -30.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 11.0%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NEOM1.4

Al Khaleej Saihat1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NEOM · PPG 1.40

AL KHALEEJ SAIHAT · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

NEOM (H) 44.7%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -15.1%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -3.4%

Al Khaleej Saihat (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

NEOM face Al Khaleej Saihat in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NEOM a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Al Khaleej Saihat 29%, so NEOM are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for NEOM and 1.1 for Al Khaleej Saihat (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NEOM are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.12 for Al Khaleej Saihat. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +12.4%.

NEOM vs Al Khaleej Saihat Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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