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Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:00

Al-Nassr

PPG 2.41 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWW ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Al Taawon

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDL ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.1%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.7%1-17.6%1-23.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-19.4%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.8%3-17.7%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.8%4+-18.6%4+-23.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.3% 82.0% 1.22 -20.3%

Draw 19.2% 16.1% 6.20 +11.4%

Away win 15.5% 9.8% 10.25 +35.3%

Over 2.5 62.5% 72.5% 1.38 -13.8%

Over 3.5 39.3% 50.0% 2.00 -21.4%

BTTS 54.3% 56.5% 1.77 -3.9%

Home O1.5 65.8% 80.0% 1.25 -17.8%

Away O1.5 25.6% 23.1% 4.33 +6.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -30.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.3%

H 65% / xG 2.5-0.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 2–1✓ 9.4%

#4 3–0 8.8%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Nassr2.5

Al Taawon0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-NASSR · PPG 2.41

AL TAAWON · PPG 1.30

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.59 for Home, form 2.41 vs 1.30 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Al-Nassr (H) 65.3%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -20.3%

Draw 19.2%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +11.4%

Al Taawon (A) 15.5%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV +35.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Nassr face Al Taawon in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Nassr a 65% chance, the draw 19% and Al Taawon 16%, so Al-Nassr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Al-Nassr and 0.9 for Al Taawon (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Nassr are averaging 2.41 points per game versus 1.30 for Al Taawon. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +33.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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