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Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:05

Al Kholood

PPG 1.35 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDW ·

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al-Ahli Jeddah

PPG 2.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-19.4%0-27.4%0-33.9%0-4+2.2%1 1-07.4%1-111.7%1-29.2%1-34.8%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.6%2-17.3%2-25.7%2-33.0%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.9%3-13.0%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.6% 11.9% 8.40 +157.0%

Draw 24.5% 21.7% 4.60 +7.6%

Away win 44.8% 73.5% 1.36 -39.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 60.6% 1.65 -11.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 38.5% 2.60 -18.1%

BTTS 55.0% 54.1% 1.85 +1.8%

Home O1.5 35.2% 22.2% 4.50 +58.4%

Away O1.5 47.9% 69.0% 1.45 -30.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -30.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.0%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–1 9.4%

#4 2–1 7.3%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Kholood1.2

Al-Ahli Jeddah1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL KHOLOOD · PPG 1.35

AL-AHLI JEDDAH · PPG 2.09

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Kholood (H) 30.6%

ODDS 8.40 · IMPLIED 11.9% EV +157.0%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +7.6%

Al-Ahli Jeddah (A) 44.8%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -39.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Kholood face Al-Ahli Jeddah in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Kholood a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Al-Ahli Jeddah 45%, so Al-Ahli Jeddah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al Kholood and 1.6 for Al-Ahli Jeddah (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Kholood are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 2.09 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +114.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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