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Al Riyadh vs NEOM Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:50

Al Riyadh

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDW ·

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

NEOM

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-18.1%0-27.5%0-34.6%0-4+3.2%1 1-05.6%1-110.4%1-29.6%1-35.9%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.6%2-16.6%2-26.1%2-33.8%2-4+2.6%3 3-01.5%3-12.8%3-22.6%3-31.6%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.4% 28.2% 3.55 -1.6%

Draw 22.5% 27.8% 3.60 -11.4%

Away win 50.1% 51.3% 1.95 -2.3%

Over 2.5 62.1% 57.8% 1.73 +7.4%

Over 3.5 39.3% 35.7% 2.80 +10.0%

BTTS 60.8% 62.5% 1.60 -2.7%

Home O1.5 37.2% 37.7% 2.65 -1.4%

Away O1.5 56.9% 54.1% 1.85 +5.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -30.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob60.8%

A 50% / xG 1.3-1.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.5%

#4 2–1 6.6%

#5 0–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Riyadh1.3

NEOM1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AL RIYADH · PPG 1.08

NEOM · PPG 1.67

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.57 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Riyadh (H) 27.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -1.6%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.4%

NEOM (A) 50.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Riyadh face NEOM in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Riyadh a 27% chance, the draw 23% and NEOM 50%, so NEOM are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Al Riyadh and 1.8 for NEOM (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Riyadh are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.67 for NEOM. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Al Riyadh vs NEOM Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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