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Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 5 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 15:55

Al-Fayha

PPG 1.46 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDW ·

UPCOMING

Al Kholood

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+10.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-17.9%0-26.1%0-33.1%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.4%1-111.3%1-28.7%1-34.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.1%2-26.2%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.5%3-13.9%3-23.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 38.2% 2.62 -8.6%

Draw 23.6% 31.3% 3.20 -14.7%

Away win 41.5% 38.2% 2.62 +8.7%

Over 2.5 59.6% 47.6% 2.10 +25.2%

Over 3.5 36.4% 26.0% 3.85 +40.1%

BTTS 61.5% 55.6% 1.80 +10.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 38.2% 2.62 +4.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 38.2% 2.62 +25.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -30.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

A 42% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–1 7.9%

#5 0–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Fayha1.4

Al Kholood1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-FAYHA · PPG 1.46

AL KHOLOOD · PPG 1.21

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al-Fayha (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -8.6%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.7%

Al Kholood (A) 41.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Fayha face Al Kholood in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Fayha a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Al Kholood 42%, so Al Kholood are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Al-Fayha and 1.5 for Al Kholood (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Fayha are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.21 for Al Kholood. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +40.1%.

Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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