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Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:00

Al-Fateh

PPG 1.23 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDD ·

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al-Ittihad FC

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-19.6%0-27.0%0-33.4%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.3%1-112.1%1-28.8%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.2%2-17.6%2-25.6%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.2%3-13.2%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 29.0% 3.45 +8.3%

Draw 24.3% 26.0% 3.85 -3.9%

Away win 44.3% 52.4% 1.91 -15.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 66.7% 1.50 -19.8%

Over 3.5 31.5% 43.5% 2.30 -27.6%

BTTS 54.3% 69.0% 1.45 -21.3%

Home O1.5 37.0% 43.5% 2.30 -14.9%

Away O1.5 40.9% 60.6% 1.65 -32.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -30.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.3%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 0–1 9.6%

#4 0–2 7.0%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Fateh1.3

Al-Ittihad FC1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-FATEH · PPG 1.23

AL-ITTIHAD FC · PPG 1.70

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al-Fateh (H) 31.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +8.3%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -3.9%

Al-Ittihad FC (A) 44.3%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Fateh face Al-Ittihad FC in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Fateh a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Al-Ittihad FC 44%, so Al-Ittihad FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Al-Fateh and 1.5 for Al-Ittihad FC (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Fateh are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.70 for Al-Ittihad FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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