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Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Al Shabab

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDD ·

UPCOMING

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

PPG 2.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWW ·

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 69.2% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-16.6%0-27.8%0-36.1%0-4+6.3%1 1-03.4%1-18.0%1-29.5%1-37.5%1-4+7.7%2 2-02.1%2-14.9%2-25.8%2-34.5%2-4+4.7%3 3-00.8%3-12.0%3-22.3%3-31.8%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.4% 12.8% 7.80 +44.8%

Draw 18.9% 19.0% 5.25 -0.5%

Away win 58.7% 75.2% 1.33 -21.9%

Over 2.5 66.8% 72.5% 1.38 -7.8%

Over 3.5 44.9% 50.0% 2.00 -10.2%

BTTS 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Home O1.5 33.2% 29.4% 3.40 +12.9%

Away O1.5 69.2% 76.9% 1.30 -10.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -30.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob61.5%

A 59% / xG 1.2-2.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.5%

#2 1–1 8.0%

#3 0–2 7.8%

#4 1–3 7.5%

#5 2–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Shabab1.2

Al-Hilal Saudi FC2.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL SHABAB · PPG 1.12

AL-HILAL SAUDI FC · PPG 2.35

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.15 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Shabab (H) 22.4%

ODDS 7.80 · IMPLIED 12.8% EV +44.8%

Draw 18.9%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -0.5%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (A) 58.7%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Shabab face Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Shabab a 22% chance, the draw 19% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59%, so Al-Hilal Saudi FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al Shabab and 2.4 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Shabab are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 2.35 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +38.2%.

Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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