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Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:05

Al-Hazm

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLD ·

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Shabab

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.5%0-24.8%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.1%1-111.7%1-27.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.1%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.6%3-14.7%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 29.8% — — —

Over 2.5 59.7% — — —

Over 3.5 36.3% — — —

BTTS 59.9% — — —

Home O1.5 44.9% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -19.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Hazm1.6

Al Shabab1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-HAZM · PPG 1.27

AL SHABAB · PPG 1.02

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al-Hazm (H) 45.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Al Shabab (A) 29.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Hazm face Al Shabab in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Hazm a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Al Shabab 30%, so Al-Hazm are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Al-Hazm and 1.3 for Al Shabab (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Hazm are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.02 for Al Shabab. This match finished 1-1.

Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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