Today / Saudi-Arabia - Pro League / Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh

Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Al-Ahli Jeddah

PPG 2.37 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLL ·

UPCOMING

Al Riyadh

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-12.9%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.8%1-17.4%1-24.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.6%2-19.3%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.2%3-17.9%3-24.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-19.1%4+-25.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.6% 76.9% 1.30 -22.5%

Draw 19.0% 19.6% 5.10 -1.9%

Away win 21.3% 11.4% 8.80 +52.5%

Over 2.5 68.4% 67.6% 1.48 +1.2%

Over 3.5 45.0% 46.5% 2.15 -3.3%

BTTS 61.5% 58.8% 1.70 +4.5%

Home O1.5 66.3% 75.2% 1.33 -11.8%

Away O1.5 33.0% 25.0% 4.00 +32.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -30.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.5%

H 60% / xG 2.5-1.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.4%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 1–2 4.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Ahli Jeddah2.5

Al Riyadh1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-AHLI JEDDAH · PPG 2.37

AL RIYADH · PPG 0.79

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.44 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al-Ahli Jeddah (H) 59.6%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -22.5%

Draw 19.0%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -1.9%

Al Riyadh (A) 21.3%

ODDS 8.80 · IMPLIED 11.4% EV +52.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Ahli Jeddah face Al Riyadh in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 60% chance, the draw 19% and Al Riyadh 21%, so Al-Ahli Jeddah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.1 for Al Riyadh (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.37 points per game versus 0.79 for Al Riyadh. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +32.0%.

Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Saudi-Arabia - Pro League Predictions