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Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 18:00

Al Shabab

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDD ·

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Riyadh

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.8%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.8%1-110.6%1-26.5%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.7%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.8%3-15.9%3-23.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.0%4+-22.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 57.1% 1.75 -10.6%

Draw 23.9% 25.6% 3.90 -4.1%

Away win 25.0% 23.8% 4.20 +3.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 39.2% 2.55 -6.4%

BTTS 56.4% 63.7% 1.57 -11.5%

Home O1.5 50.9% 60.6% 1.65 -16.0%

Away O1.5 36.6% 35.7% 2.80 +2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -30.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.4%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Shabab1.8

Al Riyadh1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL SHABAB · PPG 1.14

AL RIYADH · PPG 0.76

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Shabab (H) 51.1%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -10.6%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.1%

Al Riyadh (A) 25.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Shabab face Al Riyadh in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Shabab a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Al Riyadh 25%, so Al Shabab are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Al Shabab and 1.2 for Al Riyadh (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Shabab are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.76 for Al Riyadh. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 3-3.

Al Shabab vs Al Riyadh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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