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Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 18:00

Al-Ettifaq

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLL ·

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al-Nassr

PPG 2.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-17.6%0-27.9%0-35.5%0-4+4.7%1 1-04.4%1-19.3%1-29.7%1-36.8%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.7%2-15.7%2-26.0%2-34.2%2-4+3.5%3 3-01.1%3-12.3%3-22.4%3-31.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.0% 10.9% 9.20 +67.0%

Draw 21.7% 17.9% 5.60 +12.9%

Away win 55.3% 78.1% 1.28 -29.2%

Over 2.5 62.0% 75.2% 1.33 -17.5%

Over 3.5 39.3% 54.6% 1.83 -28.1%

BTTS 60.1% 64.5% 1.55 -6.9%

Home O1.5 33.7% 29.9% 3.35 +12.9%

Away O1.5 58.8% 82.0% 1.22 -28.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -30.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob60.1%

A 55% / xG 1.2-2.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 7.9%

#4 1–3 6.8%

#5 2–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Ettifaq1.2

Al-Nassr2.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-ETTIFAQ · PPG 1.80

AL-NASSR · PPG 2.21

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.86 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Al-Ettifaq (H) 23.0%

ODDS 9.20 · IMPLIED 10.9% EV +67.0%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +12.9%

Al-Nassr (A) 55.3%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -29.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Ettifaq face Al-Nassr in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Ettifaq a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Al-Nassr 55%, so Al-Nassr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al-Ettifaq and 2.1 for Al-Nassr (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.21 for Al-Nassr. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +55.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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