Today / Saudi-Arabia - Pro League / NEOM vs Al-Qadisiyah FC

NEOM vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 16:40

NEOM

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLL ·

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al-Qadisiyah FC

PPG 2.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-18.8%0-26.5%0-33.2%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.9%1-111.8%1-28.8%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.3%2-17.9%2-25.9%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.4%3-13.5%3-22.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 20.0% 5.00 +81.5%

Draw 27.1% 23.8% 4.20 +8.3%

Away win 36.6% 62.5% 1.60 -41.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 64.5% 1.55 -17.1%

Over 3.5 31.5% 42.6% 2.35 -26.0%

BTTS 54.3% 64.5% 1.55 -15.8%

Home O1.5 37.8% 33.9% 2.95 +11.5%

Away O1.5 40.9% 65.4% 1.53 -37.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -30.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.3%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 7.9%

#3 1–2 8.8%

#4 0–0 5.9%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NEOM1.3

Al-Qadisiyah FC1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEOM · PPG 1.64

AL-QADISIYAH FC · PPG 2.15

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

NEOM (H) 36.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +81.5%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +8.3%

Al-Qadisiyah FC (A) 36.6%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -41.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

NEOM face Al-Qadisiyah FC in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NEOM a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Al-Qadisiyah FC 37%, so Al-Qadisiyah FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for NEOM and 1.5 for Al-Qadisiyah FC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NEOM are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 2.15 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +34.4%. This match finished 0-2.

NEOM vs Al-Qadisiyah FC Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Saudi-Arabia - Pro League Predictions