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Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 18:00

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

PPG 2.31 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWW ·

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al-Ahli Jeddah

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.9%0-23.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.8%1-19.8%1-26.1%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-19.7%2-26.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.1%3-16.4%3-24.0%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-15.0%4+-23.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 59.5% 1.68 -10.1%

Draw 21.8% 24.4% 4.10 -6.4%

Away win 24.6% 22.7% 4.40 +4.9%

Over 2.5 63.7% 65.4% 1.53 -2.5%

Over 3.5 40.5% 42.6% 2.35 -4.8%

BTTS 61.5% 65.4% 1.53 -5.9%

Home O1.5 55.8% 64.5% 1.55 -13.5%

Away O1.5 36.8% 36.4% 2.75 +1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -30.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 1–2 6.1%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Hilal Saudi FC2.0

Al-Ahli Jeddah1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-HILAL SAUDI FC · PPG 2.31

AL-AHLI JEDDAH · PPG 1.79

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -10.1%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -6.4%

Al-Ahli Jeddah (A) 24.6%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Ahli Jeddah in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Al-Ahli Jeddah 25%, so Al-Hilal Saudi FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.2 for Al-Ahli Jeddah (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 1.79 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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