Eliteserien

NORWAY · 51 MATCHES TRACKED · 29 APR 2026 – 18 JUL 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 51 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

54.9%

1X2

28/51

52.9%

O/U 2.5

27/51

49.0%

BTTS

25/51

47.1%

Exact score

24/51

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

55.6%

Hit rate

25/45

1.55

Avg odds

-16.0%

ROI

-7.2u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

BTTS · N=14 35.7% HIT · AVG 1.58 · -44.1% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=13 69.2% HIT · AVG 1.53 · +5.2% ROI

HOME O1.5 · N=7 71.4% HIT · AVG 1.46 · +9.0% ROI

HOME WIN · N=6 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.55 · -0.3% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=5 40.0% HIT · AVG 1.65 · -46.4% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

60%

Hit

-3.4%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

89%

Hit

+34.6%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

56%

Hit

-15.2%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

41%

Hit

-40.0%

ROI

Match log

51 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

July 2026 // 15 PICKS · 8 HIT · 7 MISS

18 JUL HamKam vs Tromso BTTS +2% 1–4 HIT 18 JUL Kristiansund vs Sarpsborg 08 BTTS -21% 0–0 MISS 18 JUL Lillestrom vs KFUM Oslo HO1.5 2–1 HIT 18 JUL Start vs Rosenborg BTTS -17% 0–3 MISS 18 JUL Molde vs Brann Over 2.5 +4% 1–2 HIT 18 JUL Viking vs Sandefjord HO1.5 2–1 HIT 17 JUL Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad HO1.5 1–0 MISS 16 JUL Valerenga vs Aalesund Over 2.5 -10% 6–1 HIT 12 JUL KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt BTTS -15% 0–2 MISS 12 JUL Sandefjord vs HamKam BTTS -17% 2–2 HIT 12 JUL Brann vs Start HO1.5 2–1 HIT 12 JUL Rosenborg vs Kristiansund BTTS -15% 3–0 MISS 12 JUL Sarpsborg 08 vs Viking Over 2.5 -8% 1–0 MISS 11 JUL Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom BTTS -11% 0–2 MISS 11 JUL Aalesund vs Molde BTTS -10% 2–2 HIT