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Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 15:00

Sarpsborg 08 FF

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sandefjord

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-18.1%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.8%1-111.6%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-18.3%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.1%3-14.0%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 57.1% 1.75 -9.0%

Draw 26.3% 25.0% 4.00 +3.1%

Away win 21.7% 25.0% 4.00 -7.9%

Over 2.5 42.7% 66.7% 1.50 -35.9%

Over 3.5 21.1% 44.4% 2.25 -31.5%

BTTS 47.7% 67.6% 1.48 -29.4%

Home O1.5 45.1% 63.7% 1.57 -29.2%

Away O1.5 17.2% 40.8% 2.45 -34.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 2.4%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.8%

#2 0–0 12.4%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 2–0 12.7%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarpsborg 08 FF1.4

Sandefjord0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SARPSBORG 08 FF · PPG 2.00

SANDEFJORD · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sarpsborg 08 FF (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -9.0%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +3.1%

Sandefjord (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarpsborg 08 FF face Sandefjord in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Sandefjord 22%, so Sarpsborg 08 FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.7 for Sandefjord (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Sandefjord.

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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