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Brann vs Ham-Kam Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 15:00

Brann

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ham-Kam

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.7%0-21.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.2%1-16.9%1-24.6%1-32.1%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.6%2-18.9%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.7%3-17.6%3-25.1%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-19.0%4+-26.0%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.5% 65.4% 1.53 -15.1%

Draw 21.4% 22.7% 4.40 -3.5%

Away win 23.1% 19.2% 5.20 +12.1%

Over 2.5 67.3% 67.6% 1.48 -0.4%

Over 3.5 45.2% 46.5% 2.15 -2.8%

BTTS 63.3% 65.4% 1.53 -3.1%

Home O1.5 63.4% 69.4% 1.44 -8.7%

Away O1.5 42.6% 34.7% 2.88 +22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 2.4%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.3%

H 56% / xG 2.6-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 3–1 7.6%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brann2.6

Ham-Kam1.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 45.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BRANN · PPG 1.50

HAM-KAM · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.22 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Brann (H) 55.5%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -15.1%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -3.5%

Ham-Kam (A) 23.1%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brann face Ham-Kam in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brann a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Ham-Kam 23%, so Brann are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Brann and 1.3 for Ham-Kam (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brann are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Ham-Kam. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +22.7%.

Brann vs Ham-Kam Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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