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Aalesund vs Valerenga Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 12:30

Aalesund

PPG 0.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Valerenga

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.8%0-23.1%0-31.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-04.9%1-18.0%1-26.6%1-33.7%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.2%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.7%3-16.1%3-25.0%3-32.7%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-15.3%4+-24.3%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 35.7% 2.80 +34.4%

Draw 22.6% 25.6% 3.90 -7.1%

Away win 29.4% 45.5% 2.20 -21.2%

Over 2.5 67.3% 71.4% 1.40 -5.8%

Over 3.5 46.0% 50.0% 2.00 -8.0%

BTTS 63.3% 74.1% 1.35 -14.5%

Home O1.5 59.8% 54.1% 1.85 +10.6%

Away O1.5 47.7% 59.9% 1.67 -20.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 2.4%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.3%

H 48% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aalesund2.1

Valerenga1.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 46.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AALESUND · PPG 0.89

VALERENGA · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aalesund (H) 48.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +34.4%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.1%

Valerenga (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -21.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aalesund face Valerenga in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aalesund a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Valerenga 29%, so Aalesund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Aalesund and 1.6 for Valerenga (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aalesund are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.00 for Valerenga. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +14.9%.

Aalesund vs Valerenga Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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