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Viking vs Aalesund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:00

Viking

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Aalesund

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.7% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-10.6%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.6%1-12.4%1-21.1%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.5%2-14.9%2-22.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.6%3-16.8%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-024.3%4+-121.9%4+-29.8%4+-33.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.2% 78.1% 1.28 -2.5%

Draw 15.6% 16.7% 6.00 -3.8%

Away win 8.2% 12.2% 8.20 -19.7%

Over 2.5 80.7% 78.1% 1.28 +3.3%

Over 3.5 57.7% 58.8% 1.70 -1.9%

BTTS 60.8% 66.7% 1.50 -8.8%

Home O1.5 78.3% 83.3% 1.20 -6.0%

Away O1.5 25.7% 32.3% 3.10 -12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 82%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)4.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob60.8%

H 76% / xG 4.2-0.9 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 7.9%

#2 3–0 7.6%

#3 4–1 7.1%

#4 1–1 2.4%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Viking4.2

Aalesund0.9

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.7% · O3.5 PROB 57.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VIKING · PPG 3.00

AALESUND · PPG 0.86

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.26 for Home, form 3.00 vs 0.86 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Viking (H) 76.2%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -2.5%

Draw 15.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -3.8%

Aalesund (A) 8.2%

ODDS 8.20 · IMPLIED 12.2% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Viking face Aalesund in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Viking a 76% chance, the draw 16% and Aalesund 8%, so Viking are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.2 for Viking and 0.9 for Aalesund (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Viking are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.86 for Aalesund. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +33.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Viking vs Aalesund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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