Today / Norway - Eliteserien / Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK

Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:00

Ham-Kam

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Kristiansund BK

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-15.5%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.3%1-110.3%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.3%3-16.2%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-14.5%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 54.1% 1.85 +0.6%

Draw 23.5% 26.7% 3.75 -7.1%

Away win 22.1% 26.0% 3.85 -8.9%

Over 2.5 53.5% 61.7% 1.62 -13.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 39.2% 2.55 -19.7%

BTTS 52.7% 64.5% 1.55 -18.3%

Home O1.5 56.3% 58.8% 1.70 -4.3%

Away O1.5 23.6% 37.7% 2.65 -22.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.7%

H 54% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ham-Kam1.9

Kristiansund BK0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HAM-KAM · PPG 2.00

KRISTIANSUND BK · PPG 0.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ham-Kam (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +0.6%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -7.1%

Kristiansund BK (A) 22.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ham-Kam face Kristiansund BK in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ham-Kam a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Kristiansund BK 22%, so Ham-Kam are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Ham-Kam and 0.8 for Kristiansund BK (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ham-Kam are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.44 for Kristiansund BK. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +2.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - Eliteserien Predictions