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Rosenborg vs Viking Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 18 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 17:00

Rosenborg

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Viking

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-19.2%0-27.1%0-33.7%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.6%1-111.8%1-29.1%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.8%2-17.5%2-25.8%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.1%3-13.2%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 39.2% 2.55 -8.7%

Draw 24.7% 26.3% 3.80 -3.7%

Away win 39.6% 41.7% 2.40 -5.0%

Over 2.5 58.0% 69.0% 1.45 -15.9%

Over 3.5 34.7% 47.6% 2.10 -27.1%

BTTS 60.3% 72.5% 1.38 -16.8%

Home O1.5 37.9% 54.1% 1.85 -29.9%

Away O1.5 47.3% 55.6% 1.80 -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 2.4%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.3%

A 40% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.0%

#4 2–1 7.5%

#5 0–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosenborg1.3

Viking1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.0% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSENBORG · PPG 1.75

VIKING · PPG 2.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rosenborg (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -8.7%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.7%

Viking (A) 39.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosenborg face Viking in Norway - Eliteserien on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosenborg a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Viking 40%, so Viking are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Rosenborg and 1.5 for Viking (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosenborg are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.11 for Viking. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.5%.

Rosenborg vs Viking Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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