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Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:15

Lillestrom

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Fredrikstad

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-15.4%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.9%1-110.2%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.2%2-19.7%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.7%3-16.1%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-14.5%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 57.8% 1.73 -8.5%

Draw 22.4% 26.7% 3.75 -9.6%

Away win 24.7% 22.2% 4.50 +6.7%

Over 2.5 50.6% 59.9% 1.67 -15.5%

Over 3.5 30.7% 38.5% 2.60 -20.2%

BTTS 47.2% 62.5% 1.60 -24.5%

Home O1.5 56.3% 60.6% 1.65 -7.1%

Away O1.5 23.4% 33.9% 2.95 -18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 53% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lillestrom1.9

Fredrikstad0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LILLESTROM · PPG 1.50

FREDRIKSTAD · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.10 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lillestrom (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -8.5%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.6%

Fredrikstad (A) 24.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lillestrom face Fredrikstad in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lillestrom a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Fredrikstad 25%, so Lillestrom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Lillestrom and 0.8 for Fredrikstad (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lillestrom are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.78 for Fredrikstad. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 1-4.

Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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