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KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

KFUM Oslo

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lillestrom

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-111.0%0-26.2%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.7%1-113.2%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.0%2-17.9%2-24.5%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.8%3-13.2%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% 37.0% 2.70 +6.7%

Draw 27.0% 28.2% 3.55 -2.5%

Away win 33.5% 41.7% 2.40 -19.6%

Over 2.5 49.9% 61.7% 1.62 -19.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 39.2% 2.55 -16.1%

BTTS 53.1% 67.6% 1.48 -21.4%

Home O1.5 31.7% 47.6% 2.10 -33.4%

Away O1.5 34.7% 50.0% 2.00 -30.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 2.4%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 40% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KFUM Oslo1.2

Lillestrom1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KFUM OSLO · PPG 1.44

LILLESTROM · PPG 1.62

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.07, combined xG 2.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

KFUM Oslo (H) 39.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +6.7%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.5%

Lillestrom (A) 33.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

KFUM Oslo face Lillestrom in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KFUM Oslo a 40% chance, the draw 27% and Lillestrom 34%, so KFUM Oslo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for KFUM Oslo and 1.1 for Lillestrom (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KFUM Oslo are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.62 for Lillestrom.

KFUM Oslo vs Lillestrom Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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