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Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 20 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:00

Fredrikstad

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWW

UPCOMING

Bodo/Glimt

PPG 2.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-111.0%0-29.7%0-35.6%0-4+3.7%1 1-06.4%1-111.2%1-29.8%1-35.7%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.2%2-15.7%2-25.0%2-32.9%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.1%3-11.9%3-21.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.4% 13.2% 7.60 +51.3%

Draw 24.4% 19.0% 5.25 +16.9%

Away win 51.2% 75.2% 1.33 -31.9%

Over 2.5 54.1% 71.4% 1.40 -24.3%

Over 3.5 34.6% 50.0% 2.00 -30.8%

BTTS 55.9% 62.5% 1.60 -10.6%

Home O1.5 30.8% 29.0% 3.45 +6.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 76.9% 1.30 -37.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob55.9%

A 51% / xG 1.0-1.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 9.7%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fredrikstad1.0

Bodo/Glimt1.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FREDRIKSTAD · PPG 2.00

BODO/GLIMT · PPG 2.22

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.74 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Fredrikstad (H) 24.4%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +51.3%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +16.9%

Bodo/Glimt (A) 51.2%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -31.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fredrikstad face Bodo/Glimt in Norway - Eliteserien on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fredrikstad a 24% chance, the draw 24% and Bodo/Glimt 51%, so Bodo/Glimt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Fredrikstad and 1.8 for Bodo/Glimt (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fredrikstad are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.22 for Bodo/Glimt. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +37.2%.

Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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