Today / Norway - Eliteserien / Aalesund vs Start

Aalesund vs Start Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 20 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:00

Aalesund

PPG 0.90 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDDL

UPCOMING

Start

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 74.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+30.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.9%0-21.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-03.5%1-15.4%1-24.2%1-32.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.0%2-17.7%2-26.0%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.8%3-17.4%3-25.7%3-32.9%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-110.5%4+-28.1%4+-34.2%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 46.5% 2.15 +23.2%

Draw 18.8% 26.0% 3.85 -16.6%

Away win 23.9% 34.5% 2.90 -18.4%

Over 2.5 72.6% 66.7% 1.50 +8.9%

Over 3.5 52.4% 45.5% 2.20 +15.3%

BTTS 67.8% 70.4% 1.42 -3.7%

Home O1.5 74.8% 57.1% 1.75 +30.9%

Away O1.5 47.9% 48.8% 2.05 -1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob67.8%

H 57% / xG 2.8-1.5 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.7%

#2 3–1 7.4%

#3 1–1 5.4%

#4 2–2 6.0%

#5 1–2 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aalesund2.8

Start1.5

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AALESUND · PPG 0.90

START · PPG 0.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.30 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aalesund (H) 57.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +23.2%

Draw 18.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -16.6%

Start (A) 23.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aalesund face Start in Norway - Eliteserien on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aalesund a 57% chance, the draw 19% and Start 24%, so Aalesund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Aalesund and 1.5 for Start (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aalesund are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 0.44 for Start. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +78.9%.

Aalesund vs Start Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - Eliteserien Predictions