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Molde vs Tromso Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 15:00

Molde

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tromso

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.5%0-24.2%0-32.1%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.4%1-19.9%1-27.6%1-33.9%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.5%3-15.3%3-24.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.6%4+-22.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 46.5% 2.15 -6.0%

Draw 22.1% 27.8% 3.60 -12.3%

Away win 34.2% 33.3% 3.00 +2.6%

Over 2.5 64.1% 59.9% 1.67 +7.0%

Over 3.5 42.6% 37.0% 2.70 +15.0%

BTTS 63.3% 64.5% 1.55 -1.9%

Home O1.5 49.2% 52.4% 1.91 -6.0%

Away O1.5 47.3% 42.6% 2.35 +11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 2.4%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.3%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Molde1.8

Tromso1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MOLDE · PPG 2.00

TROMSO · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Molde (H) 43.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -6.0%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.3%

Tromso (A) 34.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Molde face Tromso in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Molde a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Tromso 34%, so Molde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Molde and 1.5 for Tromso (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Molde are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Tromso. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.0%.

Molde vs Tromso Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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