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Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:00

Tromso

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Sarpsborg 08 FF

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 64.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-14.1%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.2%1-18.9%1-23.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.2%2-19.6%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.8%3-17.0%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-16.3%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.0% 61.0% 1.64 +5.0%

Draw 19.3% 25.3% 3.95 -14.3%

Away win 16.8% 20.8% 4.80 -11.6%

Over 2.5 62.0% 63.7% 1.57 -2.7%

Over 3.5 39.3% 41.7% 2.40 -5.7%

BTTS 54.3% 64.5% 1.55 -15.8%

Home O1.5 64.8% 64.5% 1.55 +0.4%

Away O1.5 23.4% 33.9% 2.95 -18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.3%

H 64% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 1–1 8.9%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tromso2.2

Sarpsborg 08 FF0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TROMSO · PPG 2.22

SARPSBORG 08 FF · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.38 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tromso (H) 64.0%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +5.0%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -14.3%

Sarpsborg 08 FF (A) 16.8%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tromso face Sarpsborg 08 FF in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tromso a 64% chance, the draw 19% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 17%, so Tromso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Tromso and 0.8 for Sarpsborg 08 FF (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tromso are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 0.89 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +8.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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