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Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 17:15

Fredrikstad

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kristiansund BK

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-17.2%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.9%1-111.6%1-24.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-19.4%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.1%3-15.1%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 52.6% 1.90 +1.3%

Draw 24.4% 27.4% 3.65 -6.6%

Away win 22.2% 26.3% 3.80 -9.4%

Over 2.5 49.9% 55.6% 1.80 -10.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.9% 2.95 -9.2%

BTTS 53.1% 59.9% 1.67 -11.3%

Home O1.5 47.2% 54.1% 1.85 -12.7%

Away O1.5 21.1% 34.7% 2.88 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 2.4%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 2–0 11.2%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fredrikstad1.6

Kristiansund BK0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FREDRIKSTAD · PPG 1.86

KRISTIANSUND BK · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fredrikstad (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +1.3%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.6%

Kristiansund BK (A) 22.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fredrikstad face Kristiansund BK in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fredrikstad a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Kristiansund BK 22%, so Fredrikstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Fredrikstad and 0.8 for Kristiansund BK (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fredrikstad are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.50 for Kristiansund BK.

Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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