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Valerenga vs Molde Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:00

Valerenga

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Molde

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.0%0-23.4%0-31.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-04.9%1-18.3%1-26.9%1-33.9%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.1%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-34.0%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.5%3-15.8%3-24.9%3-32.7%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.8%4+-24.0%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 36.4% 2.75 +20.7%

Draw 21.6% 25.6% 3.90 -9.5%

Away win 34.5% 45.5% 2.20 -24.1%

Over 2.5 68.2% 74.1% 1.35 -7.9%

Over 3.5 48.2% 54.1% 1.85 -10.8%

BTTS 63.1% 76.9% 1.30 -18.0%

Home O1.5 58.8% 56.5% 1.77 +4.1%

Away O1.5 47.9% 62.5% 1.60 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.1%

H 44% / xG 2.1-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valerenga2.1

Molde1.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VALERENGA · PPG 1.44

MOLDE · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Valerenga (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +20.7%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.5%

Molde (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valerenga face Molde in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valerenga a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Molde 35%, so Valerenga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Valerenga and 1.7 for Molde (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valerenga are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.00 for Molde. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +24.0%. This match finished 3-4.

Valerenga vs Molde Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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