1 Lyga
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
Upcoming 1 Lyga predictions
DateMatchPickProbOddsEV
4 SEPT15:30 Be1 NFA vs Kauno Žalgiris II HO1.5 — — —4 SEPT16:00 Hegelmann II vs FA Šiauliai II Over 2.5 64% 1.40 -11%4 SEPT16:00 Jonava vs Dainava — NO PICK — — —4 SEPT17:00 BFA vs Babrungas — NO PICK — — —// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 80 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
57.5%
1X2
46/80
52.5%
O/U 2.5
42/80
48.7%
BTTS
39/80
41.2%
Exact score
33/80
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
16
Settled
37.5%
Hit rate
6/16
1.71
Avg odds
-40.3%
ROI
-6.5u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=7 14.3% HIT · AVG 1.65 · -76.4% ROI
HOME WIN · N=4 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.69 · -19.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 2.35 · -10.0% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.43 · +43.0% ROI
AWAY O1.5 · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.53 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
3
Bets
33%
Hit
-40.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
4
Bets
75%
Hit
+12.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
5
Bets
20%
Hit
-67.6%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
4
Bets
25%
Hit
-58.8%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 14 PICKS · 6 HIT · 8 MISS
29 AUG Garliava vs Babrungas — NO PICK 0–1 —29 AUG Transinvest 2 vs Jonava BTTS -1% 1–2 HIT29 AUG Neptūną Klaipėda vs Atmosfera BTTS -20% 3–1 HIT29 AUG Ekranas vs Be1 NFA BTTS -5% 0–5 MISS29 AUG Kauno Žalgiris II vs Hegelmann II BTTS -11% 3–0 MISS28 AUG Tauras vs BFA Over 2.5 -4% 2–2 HIT28 AUG Dainava vs Žalgiris II Over 2.5 +1% 0–1 MISS28 AUG FA Šiauliai II vs Minija Away -8% 1–2 HIT25 AUG Žalgiris II vs Transinvest 2 HO1.5 4–3 HIT22 AUG BFA vs Neptūną Klaipėda BTTS -17% 2–0 MISS22 AUG Dainava vs Atmosfera Over 2.5 -0% 1–1 MISS21 AUG Babrungas vs Tauras Home +13% 1–1 MISS21 AUG Be1 NFA vs Garliava BTTS -17% 2–0 MISS21 AUG Jonava vs FA Šiauliai II HO1.5 0–1 MISS21 AUG Hegelmann II vs Ekranas Over 2.5 -6% 3–2 HIT