1 Lyga
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 32 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
62.5%
1X2
20/32
46.9%
O/U 2.5
15/32
50.0%
BTTS
16/32
53.1%
Exact score
17/32
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
31
Settled
48.4%
Hit rate
15/31
1.56
Avg odds
-27.7%
ROI
-8.6u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=11 36.4% HIT · AVG 1.56 · -42.7% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=8 37.5% HIT · AVG 1.56 · -42.3% ROI
HOME WIN · N=6 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.39 · +38.8% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 2.11 · -40.0% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.29 · -31.5% ROI
AWAY O1.5 · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.53 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
3
Bets
33%
Hit
-40.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
1
Bets
100%
Hit
+62.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-36.5%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
25
Bets
48%
Hit
-29.1%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
June 2026 // 4 PICKS · 2 HIT · 2 MISS
10 JUN Neptuna K. vs TransINVEST Vil Over 2.5 -15% 3–0 HIT8 JUN Dainava vs Garliava BTTS -14% 1–0 MISS7 JUN Jonava vs Minija AO1.5 0–0 MISS5 JUN Ekranas vs Neptuna K. BTTS -2% 1–2 HITMay 2026 // 10 PICKS · 3 HIT · 7 MISS
30 MAY Neptuna K. vs Be1 NFA Over 2.5 +9% 1–0 MISS30 MAY Tauras vs Hegelmann B HO1.5 6–1 HIT30 MAY TransINVEST Vil vs Kauno Z. B BTTS -20% 0–1 MISS30 MAY Atmosfera vs Zalgiris B Over 2.5 -5% 2–0 MISS29 MAY Babrungas vs Minija BTTS -14% 1–0 MISS29 MAY Dainava vs Ekranas Over 2.5 +3% 2–0 MISS29 MAY Garliava vs Siauliai B HO1.5 1–1 MISS24 MAY Kauno Z. B vs Siauliai B BTTS -23% 2–0 MISS23 MAY Minija vs Tauras Home +9% 2–1 HIT23 MAY Atmosfera vs Garliava BTTS -19% 1–1 HIT22 MAY Hegelmann B vs Neptuna K. — NO PICK 2–3 —