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Hegelmann II vs Ekranas Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 16:00

Hegelmann II

PPG 0.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ekranas

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.0%0-23.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.3%1-110.7%1-26.9%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.5%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.4%3-15.6%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.7%4+-22.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 48.8% 2.05 -3.0%

Draw 23.5% 27.0% 3.70 -7.8%

Away win 29.1% 35.7% 2.80 -11.1%

Over 2.5 61.5% 65.4% 1.53 -5.9%

Over 3.5 37.6% 40.3% 2.48 -6.8%

BTTS 61.3% 65.8% 1.52 -6.8%

Home O1.5 48.8% 48.1% 2.08 +1.5%

Away O1.5 37.4% 51.8% 1.93 -27.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.3%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hegelmann II1.8

Ekranas1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HEGELMANN II · PPG 0.90

EKRANAS · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hegelmann II (H) 47.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -3.0%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.8%

Ekranas (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hegelmann II face Ekranas in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hegelmann II a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Ekranas 29%, so Hegelmann II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hegelmann II and 1.3 for Ekranas (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hegelmann II are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 0.40 for Ekranas. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 3-2.

Hegelmann II vs Ekranas Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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